No, the mass anti-Azerbaijani rally will not save Ruben Vardanyan Hunger games in Karabakh

On December 25, 2022, ethnic Armenians in Karabakh’s Khankendi city gathered in a mass anti-Azerbaijani rally organized by the so-called “state minister” of the de-facto separatist regime in Karabakh. The mass rally came amid a growing war of words between Azerbaijan and Armenia that inflamed following Azerbaijani eco-activists’ demonstrations against the illegal exploitation of natural resources, as it should take place in line with the legislation of Azerbaijan. The civilian activists and representatives of NGOs of Azerbaijan have been holding a demonstration on the Shusha-Khankendi road and demanding the Russian peacekeeping contingent take adequate measures against the illegal exploitation of natural resources.

Ironically, the inaction of the Russian contingent deployed in Karabakh in 2020 as a result of the November 10 agreement has long been a source of discontent for Azerbaijanis and Armenians. Hence, the ongoing civilian demonstrations in Karabakh occurred right in the area of dislocation of the peacekeeper contingent and its inability to address the concerns of Azerbaijani eco-activists also dragged criticism of official Yerevan.

"It turns out that the obligations stipulated under the trilateral statement, that is, to monitor the Lachin Corridor, is not also being carried out by the Russian peacekeeping contingent,” Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said during a cabinet meeting. Armenia’s National Security chief Armen Grigoryan echoed Pashinyan’s sentiments during a press briefing when he said, "a question about why Russia allegedly was not fulfilling its obligation should be addressed to Moscow."

While Baku and Yerevan exchange harsh sentiments, Moscow seems unable or reluctant to intervene in the current standoff. As a result, Ruben Vardanyan, an Armenian-origin Russian oligarch and emissary, who was sent to Karabakh to keep escalation boiling, attempts to fill the security vacuum neglected by the Russian contingent. Since his "appointment" as a "state minister" of the de-facto separatist regime, Vardanyan made the peace negotiation process between Baku and Yerevan even more complicated thanks to his contradictory statements.

To further instigate the situation and attract more attention from the international community to the current standoff in Karabakh, Vardanyan desperately promotes the idea of “120 thousand civilians being under blockade in Karabakh,” though it is increasingly clear that it is not a blockade as that word is typically imagined. Numerous video footages from the area show Russian peacekeeping vehicles, private cars, and ambulances escorted by the Red Cross were granted an unhindered passage in both directions.

Apparently, Ruben Vardanyan's decisions, such as the anti-Azerbaijani rally in Khankendi, may seem popular for Karabakh Armenians, though it is unlikely that Pashinyan’s government is comfortable with the situation. Nevertheless, Vardanyan's team kept pushing for the "besieged region" narrative by using photos of small kids. On the day of the demonstrations, Nikol Pashinyan’s spouse Anna Hakobyan shared a post on her Facebook page, putting that "one day we finally need to stop hiding behind children and 18-20-year-old soldiers. And the sooner that day comes, the sooner our tragedies will end." Reportedly, Hakobyan posted such a text on Facebook shortly after the Christmas tree and the event pavilions for children set up by the Anna Hakobyan Foundation were dismantled in Khankendi. Anna Hakobyan’s dissatisfaction, PM Nikol Pashinyan’s silence, and pro-Kocharian media groups' criticism of the Vardanyan-led mass riot should not come as a surprise, as Ruben Vardanyan's appearance in Karabakh is likely to stir harsh political clashes within Armenian political elite soon. Undoubtedly, Pashinyan views Vardanyan as Moscow’s long arm to challenge his government and further make deeper inroads into Armenia’s political elite.

Moreover, rumours were circulated on social media that the tycoon-"state minister" Vardanyan offered $30 to each resident for showing up at the recent rally in Khankendi. Immediately, the Armenian media claimed that around seventy thousand people showed up at the mass rally, which raised doubts.

As such, FaktYoxla Lab using the Mapchecking application, added contours to the perimeter of the area that hosted the action on the square in Khankendi. Based on photos and videos, it was found that the density at the right and left edges of the square is shallow (0.7 people per sq. km), given the length of 220 metres and the width of 7 metres of rags brought to the square and the space in front of the podium, and also based on the fact that there are an average of two people per square meter, the data was entered into the Mapchecking application. The result was 17,581 people, significantly less than claimed on Armenian social and mass media.

Although the current crisis situation in Karabakh creates difficulties for the peace process between Baku and Yerevan, Azerbaijan is less keen to give concessions regarding the issue, referring to territorial integrity and norms of international law. Nevertheless, for Ruben Vardanyan, it is easier to acquire the support of the ethnic Armenian community in Karabakh by making provocative statements against Azerbaijan while ignoring the existing norms of international law. Whereas it increases the risks of another round of anti-terrorist operations in Karabakh, official Baku still preserves space for a diplomatic solution to the issue.