Will Russia keep Armenia in CSTO by supplying it with arms? The bargaining continues

Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) Imangali Tasmagambetov paid an official visit to Yerevan. During the talks with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, Tasmagambetov informed about the results of the November meeting of the CSTO Collective Security Council and the joint meeting of the CSTO Ministerial Council, the Council of Defence Ministers and the Committee of Secretaries of the CSTO Security Council, where the Armenian side did not participate.

Of course, the visit of the CSTO secretary general to Armenia didn’t go unnoticed by the expert community's view, and according to analysts, Tasmagambetov brought to Yerevan for signature the documents adopted at the CSTO summit in Minsk, as well as during recent meetings at other levels. In turn, we note that the validity of this assumption of experts is supported by the following nuances.

Firstly, since all CSTO decisions must be taken unanimously, Armenia, which is still formally part of this military bloc, is obliged to follow the Charter of the organisation and express its attitude to the adoption of certain important decisions. That is, in this case, the Armenian side is obliged to put its signature under the final documents of this structure, or, on the contrary, to refuse.

Secondly, based on what decision Armenia makes in this regard, it will become clear whether it intends to maintain its participation in the organisation or leave it. Accordingly, the visit of the CSTO secretary general to Armenia may bring specifics to an important issue for Russia related to Armenia's final choice in favour or against the CSTO.

Russia is interested in Armenia's further participation in Eurasian integration projects and, in general, in keeping Armenia in the orbit of its interests. In particular, this is indicated by the periodically voiced statements from Moscow represented by the press secretary of Russian President Dmitry Peskov, as well as the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova.

Thus, in November this year, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in an interview with Russia-1 that Moscow hopes that Armenia will eventually fully resume its participation in the CSTO, and earlier he even noted the fact that the Kremlin has not received any official signals about Armenia's withdrawal from this military bloc. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry's version, voiced by Maria Zakharova, it is Washington and Brussels that are exerting pressure on Yerevan to make the Armenian leadership decide to withdraw from the CSTO.

Meanwhile, over the past year, Armenia has been demonstratively boycotting the CSTO activities, refusing to participate in summits and meetings of the organisation, not sending its servicemen to CSTO exercises, but it is in no hurry to announce that it intends to leave the organisation. It should be recalled that a major anti-Russian demarche by the Armenian side against the CSTO took place last November in Yerevan at the CSTO summit when Pashinyan refused to sign the final declaration.

The Armenian side then insisted that the CSTO adopt a statement that "the Azerbaijani army violated Armenia's borders". But Russia and other CSTO members refused to do so because there are no clearly fixed borders between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Since then, as officials in Yerevan have periodically stated, "the CSTO has begun to leave Armenia".

Third, it should be noted that the CSTO Secretary General's visit to Yerevan has considerably narrowed Armenia's room for manoeuvre, and it will have to make a final decision on its membership in the bloc. This means that the Armenian side can use Imangali Tasmagambetov's visit to Yerevan as another opportunity to bargain with Russia on the issue of arms supplies. It should be recalled that Moscow suspended military supplies to Yerevan a couple of years ago, and has not yet given any signals on the possible resumption of arms supplies to Yerevan.

In the current situation, when Russia is fully engaged with Ukraine, the resumption of Russian military supplies to Armenia, although unlikely, should not be completely discounted. This is indirectly pointed out by statements by Russian Ambassador to Armenia Sergei Kopyrkin that Russia and Armenia are discussing new agreements on military-technical cooperation.

"On some individual contracts there are indeed issues related to the obligations of Russian enterprises to fulfil the state defence order, but these are working points that are being resolved in dialogue between the relevant agencies of Russia and Armenia," Kopyrkin said.

Whether Moscow is ready to supply arms to Armenia is a rather controversial issue. The editorial board of Caliber.Az asked Russian military expert Alexei Khlopotov to clarify it. He believes that despite Yerevan's rhetoric and very complicated relations with Moscow, Armenia may well count on Russian arms supplies.

"The CSTO has not officially left the CSTO, and Russia, for its part, is interested in keeping Armenia in its orbit. Another thing is that not everything in terms of the range of armaments Moscow is now ready to supply. In connection with the Strategic Defence Forces, the Russian army itself is currently experiencing an acute deficit in some types of weapons. This is primarily drones, artillery guns and ammunition.

On the other hand, Russia is quite capable of supplying air defence and electronic warfare systems and small arms," Khlopotov explained.