Azerbaijan’s strategy, Ukraine’s game, White House’s bonuses Caliber.Az weekly review

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of the “Events” show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev about the main news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries.

AZERBAIJAN – ARMENIA

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s intensive international activity was observed during this week (April 22-28).

Thus, at the beginning of the week, President Aliyev made a working visit to Moscow at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

During the negotiations, the leaders of the two countries reviewed key issues regarding the further development of the Russia-Azerbaijan relations and exchanged views on current regional issues.

There was a need for such a meeting. It is obvious that, on the one hand, the end of the Karabakh conflict, and on the other hand, attempts by extra-regional forces to advance their agenda in the South Caucasus through regional countries contribute to strengthening cooperation between Baku and Moscow in protecting their state interests.

“Russia is a fundamental country in terms of regional security in the Caucasus and in the wider geography. A lot depends on the actions and interaction between our countries,” President Aliyev said during the meeting.

The basis for strengthening cooperation between Azerbaijan and Russia was the Declaration on Allied Cooperation signed back in 2022. Of course, some representatives of the West are trying to describe these relations as something imposed by Moscow.

“There are certain phobias, stereotypes, propaganda. However, I think that it is clear that all this related to Azerbaijan is too exaggerated. It is possible to defend sovereignty, independence, independent policy not only formally, but also in reality by maintaining good relations with Russia. The Russia-Azerbaijan relations can be cited as an example,” President Aliyev said in response to a question about Russia’s future role in the South Caucasus at an international forum at ADA University.

Indeed, the Russian peacekeeping contingent left Azerbaijan ahead of schedule to realise that Baku is pursuing an independent policy.

Special attention at the meeting between President Aliyev and President Putin was paid to the economic issues, as well as the transport sector, in particular the International North-South Transport Corridor.

President Aliyev's visit to Moscow also included a very important component, namely an event marking the 50th anniversary of the beginning of construction of the Baikal-Amur Mainline, a gigantic strategic construction project of the Soviet Union, which, as is known, was supervised by Azerbaijani national leader Heydar Aliyev.

During the meeting, the veterans of Baikal-Amur Mainline shared their memories and impressions about Heydar Aliyev.

Immediately upon returning to Baku, President Aliyev took part in the mentioned forum “COP29 and Green Vision for Azerbaijan”, held at ADA University.

President Aliyev answered numerous questions of foreign experts related to the upcoming COP29 conference, the green transition, the economy and security issues of the South Caucasus.

President Aliyev expressed displeasure at the interference of third countries in the regional affairs, trying to establish dividing lines here.

Proceeding from the president’s words, Armenia loses most of all, it is isolated from the entire region, from the South Caucasus and even from global communications.

However, President Aliyev also noted that the sides are closer to peace than ever, and even expressed hope for the possibility of signing a peace treaty by the date of the conference in Baku.

In general, President Aliyev’s speech at the forum became another milestone in the world community’s perception of Azerbaijan not as a zone of conflict, but as a fully established country that was able to defend its sovereignty and is now called upon to make a significant contribution to solving global problems.

As for the topic of normalisation of relations with Armenia, it is important to note the good news as a result of the negotiations on delimitation and demarcation.

At the beginning of the week, the first border pillar was installed on the border of Azerbaijan and Armenia. The office of Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev has recently states that as of April 26, 2024, about 35 per cent of the planned work has been completed on the border and 28 border pillars have been installed.

The work of the expert groups of the two states is underway.  

By the way, it is very important to remember President Aliyev’s words regarding delimitation during a forum at ADA University.

“Delimitation and peace agreement are two separate issues. I think it would be wrong to combine them into one and make one dependent on the other,” the president said.

The both sides understand the importance of making progress on the issues on which general agreement has been reached.

After the forum, President Aliyev met with President of fraternal Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov, who had arrived in Azerbaijan on a state visit.

During the visit, 18 governmental agreements were signed. President Japarov and President Aliyev held a meeting of the Interstate Council of Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan in Baku.

The leaders of the two countries also visited the liberated territories in Aghdam and Fuzuli. In Aghdam, President Aliyev and President Japarov took part in laying the foundation of a school, the construction of which was undertaken by the Kyrgyz side.

Afterwards, President Aliyev paid a working visit to Germany to participate in the Petersberg Climate Dialogue. President Aliyev held a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Following the meeting, the leaders of the two countries held a joint press conference. Special attention should be paid to some statements of the sides.

As for the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Chancellor Scholz spoke briefly, expressing confidence that all issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan will be resolved peacefully.

He talked much about the green agenda, Azerbaijan’s role and responsibility in the upcoming COP29 conference by mentioning the interest of German companies in cooperation with Baku, mainly in hydrogen and renewable energy.

The German chancellor did not touch upon the topic related to the return of Karabakh Armenians to Azerbaijan.

This shows Berlin accepts that the Karabakh issue is being removed from the international agenda.

President Aliyev, in turn, emphasised the role of Germany in the negotiation process, reminding about the meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Berlin.

It seems that Baku managed to convince Berlin not to follow France’s path. Germany got rid of France’s annoying and toxic words and was able to create an image of a constructive party contributing to a fruitful peace process, and therefore a true leader of Europe.

UKRAINE RUSSIA

The tactical breakthrough of the Russian army is still observed on the Ukrainian front. In particular, a breakthrough is observed in the direction of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region, where the Russians seized the centre of Ocheretne settlement.

The problem of losing Ocheretne for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is primarily associated with the threat of the collapse of the entire defensive line in the direction of Pokrovsk, the creation of which the Ukrainian command was forced to begin after the Ukrainian Armed Forces abandoned Avdiivka.

US President Joe Biden promised and approved the draft assistance to Ukraine immediately after the Senate, following the House of Representatives, approved it.

Meanwhile, interesting statements were heard in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s interviews to several Western journalists. He voiced the idea that Kyiv could begin the process of negotiations with Russia to resolve the conflict.

President Zelenskyy said that following the peace summit on Ukraine, which is planned to be held in Switzerland in June, Kyiv intends to prepare a document on resolving all controversial issues, send it to Moscow, and then discuss it with Russia.

The president says that Ukraine will win the confrontation with Russia, however, the results of the conflict may not please everyone.

“I don’t know how it will be, I’m not sure that everyone will be happy,” President Zelenskyy said.

It sounds mysterious. It would be strange for Zelenskyy to mean that Russia will be unhappy.

The Ukrainian president means the West. It seems that Zelenskyy, apparently to force the West to render even more urgent and tangible assistance, is trying to manipulate not only Russia’s intimidation of the West, but also the opportunity to come to an agreement with it on his own.

Kyiv understands that an important moment is coming for Democrats in the US. They want to act as a moderator of the truce in Ukraine and gain the image of peacekeepers on the eve of the elections.

Kyiv, apparently, is trying to get the most effective assistance from the US, which would allow achieving the most favourable outcome before an important event for the US in autumn.

MIDDLE EAST

Details of Israel's retaliatory strike on Iran have been announced. The missile disabled the radar of an airbase guarding a strategic nuclear facility near Isfahan.

Thus, Tel Aviv’s response was modest and almost imperceptible but very eloquent and painful, primarily for Tehran’s pride. It turns out that the air defence system, which is supposed to protect Iran, is clearly visible to Tel Aviv.

Hamas intensified activity in the Gaza Strip proceeding from numerous missile launches against Israel from the territory of the Gaza Strip.

The operation in Rafah will most likely happen immediately after Passover, that is, after April 29.

The civilians are expected to be evacuated from the city. A tent city designed to accommodate approximately one million people has already been built.

Moreover, the Americans approved this operation. According to some experts, in exchange, the Israelis agreed to the creation of a Palestinian state after the end of the war.

Everything looks very logical. Before the elections, President Biden wants to gain maximum benefits from the situation in the Middle East.

By approving the operation in Rafah, and therefore the defeat of Hamas, the Democrats want to get the votes of the Jewish diaspora, while by seeking the creation of a Palestinian state, they also attract the big Muslim community of the US to their side.