Will Armenia draw the right conclusions from President Aliyev's messages? The clock is ticking

It would seem that Azerbaijan's convincing victory in the 44-day war, which resulted in the liberation of Azerbaijani territories from the Armenian occupation, should have brought long-awaited calm in the region. It is no exaggeration to say that many in Azerbaijan and beyond thought so. Baku, for its part, did everything possible, even impossible, in this direction. Having every opportunity to finally crush Pashinyan and Armenia, Azerbaijan nevertheless gave the Armenian authorities a chance to save face, hoping for an adequate reaction. As a simple example, understanding the painful situation for all Armenian society, the Azerbaijani side agreed three days after the signing of the Trilateral Statement on a ceasefire to search for and remove the bodies of Armenian military personnel from the liberated territories so that they could be identified and buried in Armenia. From November 13, 2020, to November 2022 1786 bodies of the Armenian military were found and removed from the liberated territories. At the same time, Baku still cannot receive a clear answer from Yerevan about the fate of about 4,000 Azerbaijanis missing during the First Karabakh war, although terrible findings in the village Edilli of Khojavand district, near Farrukh (Aghdam district), in the village Ashagi Seyidahmadli of Fuzuli district eloquently indicate that they were brutally killed by Armenian gangs.

Baku's subsequent actions, in particular agreeing to participate in meetings with the Armenian side at various international venues - notably Moscow, Brussels, and Washington - also spoke of a commitment to the peace agenda. In March 2022, Azerbaijan named five basic principles for the normalisation of relations with Armenia:

- Mutual recognition of each other's sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of international borders, and political independence;

- Mutual confirmation of the absence of territorial claims of States against each other and the legal obligation not to assert such claims in the future;

- To refrain from threatening each other's security in inter-State relations, from the use of threats and force against political independence and territorial integrity, and from other circumstances inconsistent with the purposes of the UN Charter;

- Delimitation and demarcation of the State border, the establishment of diplomatic relations;

- Opening of transport and communications, the establishment of other relevant communications, and cooperation in other areas of mutual interest.

In short, Armenia seems to have accepted these principles, at least initially and verbally. Last year, meetings were held at the highest levels (one of their most important outcomes was a reference to the Almaty Declaration) and also at the ministerial level, Presidential aide Hajiyev met with Secretary of the Security Council Grigoryan and working groups on border delimitation were established and met. It could be said that for the almost whole entire past year, the Azerbaijani side has been rushing, pushing Yerevan to conclude a peace treaty as soon as possible, although it would seem to be the losing side that should have demonstrated an interest in the issue. In October, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that a peace treaty with Armenia could be signed before the end of 2022 if only Yerevan showed goodwill. Alas, subsequent events have shown that Armenia is trying to silence and block the very possibility of signing a peace treaty under which it would have to renounce its territorial claims against Azerbaijan once and for all. However, Armenian armed forces are still in Karabakh, Armenia has still not provided a corridor to connect the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic with the main part of Azerbaijan, and Armenia's shelling of Azerbaijani army positions has become regular. Thus, 2022 was a year of missed opportunities because of Armenia.

It is therefore not surprising that President Aliyev said yesterday in an interview with domestic TV channels that there is no peace treaty, so there is no need for one.

"We can live like this for a long time. What will happen then? Time will tell. Because I think this year will be the last chance for them. Because then 2024 comes, and then in 2025, Russia's peacekeeping mission ends. They need to see slightly farther than their noses. Nevertheless, despite the suffering, pain, and destruction of everything dear to us, we are speaking of peace. Do you understand that it is not easy both from a political point of view and from a humanitarian point of view? However, since we understand that it is in the long-term interests of Azerbaijan, we propose it. But it will be on the table for a while. Then, as they say, we will not be particularly active. If they are not interested, we don't need it either. If they are not interested in delimitation, we don't need it either. This means that the border will pass where we believe it should. I am already compelled to use such terms. If the border has not been delimited, then who can say that the border passes here, and not there? I think it should be here. I have reasons to say this – historical, and cartographic reasons. Therefore, this issue should concern them more than us," the head of state said, warning the Armenian side.

Last September, Armenia was able to make sure that these are not just words and not an attempt to intimidate the other side, when the Armenian military, forgetting its disgrace of two years ago, decided on another provocation. As a result, the units of the Azerbaijani Army came close to the borders of our country, to the borders, where they should have been 30 years ago. And since the delimitation of the border has never happened due to Armenia's fault, who can really prohibit us from thinking that the official border line is still very far away? It is not an invasion of someone else's territory, but only an intention to carry out engineering and communication work on the border, more so there are grounds for this, as President Aliyev stressed, historical and cartographic.

At the same time, the President expressed his confidence that there will not be a third war with Armenia. Although, it must be recognised that some countries and forces are trying to accuse Baku of planning an attack on Armenia. After the President's words, it is clear that those who accuse Azerbaijan of this have either fallen prey to Armenian propaganda or are waging a smear campaign against our state. Aliyev, therefore, drew attention to the fact that "the threats have not been eliminated, since we have faced new threats after the war". However, the head of state warned that "we feel strong in ourselves, everyone should know that we are not worth joking with." And this is indeed true - who can stop a well-armed and motivated professional army of a hundred thousand?