Pashinyan's poll numbers keep wilting Armenia faces tough choice

Confidence in Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is on the decline, the results of a Gallup International poll in January show. According to the survey, 38.1 per cent of respondents do not trust the Armenian PM at all (35.5 per cent in November 2023), while 15.1 per cent fully trust Pashinyan (20.4 per cent in November). 28.3 per cent of those polled mostly mistrust Pashinyan (18.6 per cent in November), while 13.1 per cent mostly trust him (13.2 per cent in November). 4.6 per cent of respondents (12.3 per cent) found it difficult to answer. At the same time, 38.1 per cent of the respondents said that the Constitution of Armenia cannot be changed, 34.2 per cent were inclined to change some of its provisions, and 13.4 per cent were in favour of adopting a new Constitution. Moreover, 29.3 per cent of those polled thought that extraordinary parliamentary elections should be held, while 26.9 per cent disagreed.

If the elections were held next Sunday, 16.1 per cent of respondents would vote for the Civil Contract party led by Pashinyan, 4.7 per cent for the Armenia opposition bloc led by ex-president Robert Kocharyan, 3.6 per cent for Vardan Ghukasyan, a wanted former policeman and leader of the Public Voice party, and 2.9 per cent for the Honour I Have opposition bloc led by ex-president Serzh Sargsyan. 25.8 per cent of respondents do not want to participate in the elections.

The results of this survey give us something to think about. Firstly, we see a decline in Pashinyan's rating. This is undoubtedly due to Armenian society blaming him for failing to oppose Azerbaijan's restoring its sovereignty and territorial integrity. In the aftermath of the Armenian defeat in the 44-day war, the people of Azerbaijan have been disappointed by the ease and speed with which the myths that Armenian society has been living by during the years of occupation of 20 per cent of the Azerbaijani territory have been shattered. I remember very well that the Armenian revanchists, led by ex-President Robert Kocharyan, had high hopes for early parliamentary elections in June 2021. But then, let me remind you, 53.92 per cent of the Armenian citizens who went to the polls voted in favour of Pashinyan's "Civil Contract". Kocharyan's opposition bloc "Armenia" received 21.04 per cent of the votes. The "I Have Honour" alliance led by Vanetsyan and Sargsyan came in third with 5.24 per cent of the vote.

Since then, all political parties in Armenia have seen their ratings fall. The rating of the alliance led by the Sargsyan-Vanetsyan tandem dropped to the lowest of the low. Even such a figure as Vardan Ghukasyan, who recently founded his own party, has overtaken them. I would like to remind you that we are talking about a former policeman who later became a scandalous video blogger. The Armenian media call him "Dog". He is "famous" for having used foul language and for having expressed sexual fantasies about various Armenian politicians and members of their families, and now he has a rating that is higher than that of Serzh Sargsyan and Artur Vanetsyan! This fact alone is enough to understand the extent to which Armenian citizens despise all those involved in politics in Armenia.

But that is not all. The current rating would not allow Kocharyan's "Armenia" bloc to enter the country's parliament. In fact, neither would the Sargsyan-Vanetsyan parties or Vardan Ghukasyan. But Pashinyan's Civil Contract would again win the majority of seats in the Armenian parliament, despite the significant drop in PM's rating. It is also significant that 25.8 per cent of respondents do not want to participate in the elections. This is a vote of no confidence in all Armenian political parties. Shakespeare's "A Plague on Both Your Houses" in action! And this is not surprising. After all, Armenia is in the grip of socio-economic, foreign and domestic, moral and ethical problems. All of them were created at the moment when this country decided to make territorial claims on Azerbaijan, to invent myths about itself and its neighbours.

And Armenia is not particularly keen on letting go of these myths. The fact that 38.1 per cent of respondents believe that the Armenian constitution is not subject to change is evidence of this. We are talking about the constitution that stipulates territorial claims to Azerbaijan and Türkiye. There can be no peace in the region without their elimination. And this is a major problem for Armenia. Azerbaijan and Türkiye have long been successfully implementing all the major projects in the region without Armenia's participation. This country is now faced with a choice: to make no changes in its constitution and its relations with its neighbours and sink further into the quagmire of unsolvable problems or to make changes in its constitution and establish relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye and gradually begin to climb out of this quagmire. Nikol Pashinyan and his entourage see all these prospects. But they also see the threats to themselves. Time will tell how the incumbent Armenian authorities will deal with the situation. But Azerbaijan is ready for any development.