New lethal incident in Karabakh hammered peace optimism More arms for separatists under watch of “peacekeepers”

On March 5, a new round of armed incidents occurred between the Azerbaijani troops and a group of Armenian saboteurs who were attempting to smuggle weapons, ammunition and personnel from Armenia to the Karabakh region. According to Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry, the items were being transported through a dirt road bypassing the Lachin road – the only route that can be used between the Karabakh region and Armenia.

The current incident exposed two main vulnerabilities: the inability of the Russian peacekeeping forces to fulfil their duties adequately and the fragile security between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Karabakh region in the post-war period.

Since the 2020 November ceasefire agreement, Azerbaijan demanded the full withdrawal of the remnants of the illegal armed groups, though Armenia kept supporting the de-facto separatist regime in Khankendi by stationing its troops in the region and allocating budget annually. Simultaneously, Baku and Yerevan have been engaged in long-term peace negotiations in various platforms such as Moscow, Sochi, Brussels and recently in Munich, albeit with limited success.

Although both societies appeared optimistic regarding final peace in the region, the continuing mutual accusations of Baku and Yerevan and frequent fire exchanges in Karabakh leave no room for optimism in 2023. Hence, the limited progress in the peace talks increased the risks of armed escalation in 2022, which resulted in the deadliest hostilities in September.

The recent incident repeatedly triggered criticism of the Russian peace contingent deployed in Karabakh. As such, the Azerbaijani MoD informed informs the Russian peacekeeping contingent command that the implementation of the points of the trilateral statement must be ensured unconditionally and in full.

Azerbaijani media reported that the separatist regime in Karabakh is still smuggling arms to Karabakh, violating the terms of the agreement. Therefore, the incident happened when Azerbaijan servicemen attempted to inspect the vehicle while Armenian armed group members opened fire, killing two.

Moreover, Armenian groups are now actively using the Yevlakh-Khojaly-Lachin road, bypassing the main Khankendi road in an effort to avoid the security scan of Russian peace forces and Azerbaijani troops. While such incidents draw attention to the complex situation on the ground, it also highlights the importance of establishing security checkpoints in Karabakh, earlier proposed by Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev during the Munich conference.

Unsurprisingly, other Azerbaijani senior officials emphasized the necessity of security checkpoints as the only viable option to prevent illegal arms transfer to Karabakh facilitated by the Armenian government.

Even before the most recent incident, official Baku warned the international community numerous times, particularly the Western countries, regarding the Armenian armed groups worrying activities in the region. For example, two days before the incident, Azerbaijani media revealed video footage starring Armenians setting up a new defence position, while the Russian contingent demonstrated ignorance of the fact. From the Azerbaijani point of view, the separatist regime in Khankendi deliberately ignites the situation in Karabakh, intending to torpedo the peace process and delay it for months and years.

Unlike previous incidents, the recent lethal incident coincided with the official visit of the EU special representative for the South Caucasus, Toivo Klaar and the US special representative for the South Caucasus, Lui Bono, to Baku. Upon his arrival, Klaar expressed his concerns urging both sides to return to the dialogue, while the newly-appointed Lui Bono did not make any statement.

Given the critical situation, Klaar and Bono will likely meet face-to-face with President Ilham Aliyev to rule out the situation. Nonetheless, Armenian armed groups violated the ceasefire regime on March 6 by targeting Azerbaijani troops in the directions of Gunashli, Ashaghi Shorzha, Azizli, Zarkand, Yukhari Zaghali settlements of the Basarkechar and Chambarak regions using various calibre weapons and mortars.

The renewed escalation between Azerbaijan and Armenian armed groups in Karabakh would have grave results in terms of the peace process. Also, the incident would seriously undermine the recent communication of the Azerbaijani government with the ethnic Armenian community in Karabakh to ensure their reintegration into Azerbaijani society and a smooth transition process. Regardless of the results of Klaar's and Bono's visit to Baku, Azerbaijan will further push for establishing security checkpoints in Karabakh, particularly in Lachin, to prevent illegal arms smuggling and other forms of activities.