Moscow takes menacing stance as it watches Pashinyan's tightrope walk between West and Russia Armenia on the brink of state collapse

In a recent interview with TASS, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed the South Caucasus and highlighted the priority issues of Russian policy. Specifically, he addressed the continued presence of the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri, which is a highly debated topic among the Russian expert community. Many experts believe that if Armenia turns towards the West, it could result in the early disappearance of the Russian military presence in Armenia.

Russia is closely monitoring the ongoing developments in Armenia and likely has a plan of action in place. Despite Armenia's actions, Russia has shown patience and leniency towards the country, even though the EU mission has been deployed and expanded there. However, Russia's patience is not unlimited, as demonstrated by periodic messages from the Russian Foreign Ministry and politicians, including Lavrov's recent statements.

The Russian Foreign Minister's comments on the importance of the Russian military base in Armenia indicate an attempt to put an end to this issue in Russian-Armenian relations and to send a message to Yerevan's allies in the West. Lavrov emphasized that discussions about the expediency of the military base in Armenia are harmful and stressed that the agreement on its deployment (March 16, 1995) was based on national interests and the common task of strengthening stability in the South Caucasus.

Lavrov's statements show that Russia has no intention of withdrawing its military contingent from Armenia and is quite categorical about this.

Lavrov went on to outline the West's main goal, which, according to him, is to push Russia out of the region rather than to stabilize Armenia. Incidentally, the Russian Foreign Ministry has often voiced this view.

"The US and the EU, unlike Russia, have no interest in peace and stability in the republic and the South Caucasus as a whole. Their goal is quite different. They want to oust Moscow and other regionalists, create a new hotbed of tension after the Balkans, the Middle East and Ukraine," the Russian minister said.

He said that Armenia's "way out of the difficult situation is obvious: implementation of the Yerevan-Baku-Moscow trilateral agreements at the highest levels".

This means that Russia, addressing this message specifically to Yerevan, will continue to insist on the fulfilment of obligations under the trilateral declaration.

Lavrov also stressed that Armenia's deepening dialogue with NATO is leading to a loss of defence sovereignty. According to the Russian Foreign Minister, "The real goal of NATO members is to strengthen their positions in the region, to create conditions for manipulation according to the 'divide and rule' scheme". It is difficult to dispute this conclusion, given the interests of the superpowers in the strategic region of the South Caucasus.

At the same time, this is exactly the arrangement that suits the Pashinyan government, as shown by Armenia's illusions about France and the US. Another thing is that the West will not get involved in solving the problems of the "land of stones"; it has enough unresolved problems all over the world - from Ukraine to the Middle East.

Alexander Kobrinsky, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Director of the Russian Agency for Ethno-National Strategies (RAES), shared his opinion with Caliber.Az on what awaits Armenia in case of its pivot to the West and what mechanisms of influence Moscow can use.

"Russia continues to tolerate many unfriendly steps taken by Armenia, and even Lavrov does not criticise Armenia, but rather marvels at the short-sightedness of the Armenian leadership. It should be noted that Armenia's GDP will grow by 12.7 per cent in 2022, and by 7.5 per cent in 2023, and the forecast for 2024 is 4 to 6 per cent.

What has led to this? Relocation from Russia and the SMO (Special Military Operation) in Ukraine. However, Armenia enjoys the free movement of capital and labour as a result of its membership in the EAEU.

It is clear that if Armenia moves away from Russia, its place will be taken by the West, and then the logistical routes in Armenia will come to an end. The republic will be fully subsidised by the West, which will inevitably lead to the loss of sovereignty, the impoverishment of the people and, in the foreseeable future, the loss of statehood.

The Armenian leadership has put the country up for tender, and whoever promises the most will get it. So far, it seems to be counting on the promises of France and the EU. But one cannot seriously believe that Macron's France is a sovereign state. In reality, France is dependent on the Anglo-Saxons.

I believe that the Russian base will remain in Armenia for the foreseeable future, according to the treaty. As for the supply of Russian weapons to Armenia, this is a business issue. In any case, the Armenian leadership will not be able to play a double game. Multi-vectorism in the modern world will eventually mean a coup d'état and disaster for Armenian society. So the choice is up to Armenia," Kobrinsky said.