Iran risks opening Pandora's Box in the fragile region Knife-edge situation between Baku and Tehran

Since 2022, the tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan aren't getting any better. As of March 2023, Baku has sent two protest notes to Tehran due to mounting threats from Iranian commanders and upcoming military drills.

On March 11, Azerbaijan summoned its Iranian Ambassador to Baku after an Iranian warplane flew close to and crossed the Iranian-Azerbaijani border. The provocation with air space, followed by a series of propaganda videos, made the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). In light of vocal threats from Tehran, Azerbaijani law-enforcement forces recently conducted a crackdown on an allegedly Iranian-linked spy network across the country.

According to the Azerbaijani media, those persons were engaged in espionage activities within the country by providing Iranian security services with critical information regarding infrastructure and the local military. Moreover, the statement says that detainees, "posing as believers, made propaganda for Iran on social networks and abused the freedom of religion in the country, carrying out the assignments of the Iranian special services."

Iran's concern with the situation mainly stems from the fact that Azerbaijan inaugurated its first-ever embassy in Israel a few days ago, despite the cautions of Tehran not to do so. From the Azerbaijani point of view, opening the embassy in Israel was a critical decision, as Iran explicitly boosted its alliance with Armenia ignoring the sentiments and concerns of Shi’a-dominated Azerbaijan. Also, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen's remarks during the opening ceremony that Azerbaijan and Israel will jointly fight against Iran’s destructive actions further ignited the tensions between Baku and Tehran.

In light of mounting diplomatic rifts, and a war of words, many in Azerbaijan argue that the major escalation with Tehran will occur by the end of 2023, though considering some specific nuances, the conventional war between the two is unlikely. The likelihood scenario is that Iran will push its proxy forces, such as Hezbollah and its affiliated radical Shi'a organizations, to take measures against Azerbaijan, enabling Tehran to refute allegations regarding its involvement in a campaign against Baku.

The frequent threats of Tehran toward Baku created a precedent for its proxy forces, such as Huseyniyyun and Liwa-Fatemiyoun, which actively recruit radical Shi'a Muslims from Azerbaijan to issue separate threats. As such, Iranian-linked threats came alongside threats from Iranian officials, including members of Parliament. On April 1, Ruhollah Mutafkerazad, a member of the Parliament, accused Azerbaijan of being "an instrument of the Zionist regime." The more profound threat came from the Huseyniyyun organization, which warned Baku of the "consequences of its engagement with the Zionist regime."

The mutual accusations and rising sentiments on both sides suggest that Iran will retaliate against Azerbaijan-Türkiye and Azerbaijan-Israel tandems either by pushing Armenia forward or perpetrating large-scale provocations in the borderline areas.

Although Tehran seeks to punish its neighbour, the Turkish factor cannot be ignored, considering the Shusha declaration signed between Ankara and Baku in 2021. The declaration guarantees Ankara's direct military support in case of attacks from third countries. However, the most recent devastating earthquake in Türkiye, followed by the political fragmentation amid the upcoming critical elections, may give Tehran a good chance for provocation operations against Baku.

Consequently, Azerbaijan refutes all allegations that Iran is allowing third countries to use its territory as a potential platform to carry out an attack against itself. Undoubtedly, Iran is unhappy with the newly emerged geopolitical conditions in the South Caucasus and its diminishing influence.

The new realities explicitly limit Iran's ability to interfere in the regional process and risk-reducing its influence over Armenia in case of the opening of regional communication lines. Therefore, Iran's unprovoked reaction and vocal threats should not come as a surprise.