France's ambitious gambit in the South Caucasus Strategic manoeuvres, controversial alliances, and waning influence

France's intensified involvement in the South Caucasus, particularly through its alliance with Armenia, reflects its strategic ambition to uphold global influence in regions where it has historically wielded power. This move underscores Paris's determination to expand its sphere of influence beyond its traditional territories in Africa and establish a stronger presence in emerging geopolitical landscapes.

France's renewed focus on the South Caucasus, a region historically marked by complex geopolitical dynamics and ongoing conflicts, has been highlighted by its deepening ties with Armenia. Recent diplomatic initiatives, economic partnerships, and military cooperation between France and Armenia serve as tangible evidence of this burgeoning relationship.

In the aftermath of Armenia's defeat in the Karabakh conflict, a rift has emerged in Yerevan's relations with Russia, traditionally seen as Armenia's foremost protector. This development has underscored the growing significance of Armenia's ties with France. Following Azerbaijan's successful takeover of Karabakh in 2020, France has taken proactive steps to bolster Armenia's military capabilities through various assistance agreements.

The souring of relations between Armenia and Russia, once staunch allies, has prompted Yerevan to seek alternative avenues of support, with France emerging as a key partner in this endeavour. France has engaged in a series of military assistance deals with Armenia, aimed at enhancing its military capabilities.

French military sales to Armenia

In a recent meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and French President Emmanuel Macron, held in late February in France, the enduring bond between the two nations was underscored, reiterating France's steadfast support for Armenia within the European Union.

During his visit to Yerevan on February 23, French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu emphasized that assisting Armenia was a top foreign policy objective for France. He stated to reporters, "it is because Armenia needs us right now that we're here." Armenian Defence Minister Suren Papikyan, commenting on France's support, highlighted its significance by saying, it "means we can look forward to long-term planning in the years ahead."

The assistance provided by France encompasses a range of military assets, including armoured vehicles, arms, equipment, munitions, and the improvement of air-defence systems.

France's recent agreements with Armenia to sell advanced air defence systems, including the Thales GM 200 and the future sale of the Mistral short-range air defence system, have raised eyebrows and sparked speculation regarding the strategic implications of such deals.

Despite Armenia's existing joint air-defence system with Russia, established in 2015 and ratified by the Armenian parliament in 2016, France's decision to provide advanced technology to a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) prompts questions about its motivations.

Observers note the peculiar nature of a NATO member engaging in such transactions with a CSTO ally, given Russia's operational control over Armenia's air defences. Concerns arise regarding the potential scrutiny and even appropriation of the acquired technology by the Russian military, especially considering Russia's military presence in Armenia.

Furthermore, there are fears that the new defence systems could be subject to inspection and reverse-engineering by Armenia's ally Iran, which has reportedly made significant inroads into Armenia's military-industrial complex.

France's military presence in the South Caucasus, albeit modest compared to other global powers, has been steadily increasing. Through joint military exercises, training programs, and arms sales, France has sought to bolster Armenia's defence capabilities, thereby enhancing its influence and strategic positioning in the region.

Strategic manoeuvring or provocative diplomacy?

The recent military deals between France and Armenia have drawn attention and prompted discussions about the possible reasons behind these agreements. Observers point out that France's military sales to Armenia may serve multiple purposes beyond merely promoting stability in the South Caucasus region. While some view these sales as a political gesture aimed at appeasing France's influential Armenian diaspora, others suggest a more strategic agenda focused on rivalries with diplomatic adversaries such as Türkiye and Britain.

Analysts note that by establishing a military foothold in Armenia, France potentially gains leverage to obstruct any potential reconciliation efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This tactic aligns with a traditional French diplomatic strategy, in which France tends to exploit and widen existing rifts between countries seeking cooperation, allowing it to draw closer to one party while alienating the other.

Critics argue that France's military sales to Armenia may exacerbate tensions in the already volatile region, particularly given the historical animosity between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. By arming Armenia, France risks further complicating efforts for peaceful resolution and regional stability.

France's expanding presence in the region has not been without controversy. Critics argue that France's deepening involvement in the South Caucasus risks exacerbating existing tensions and could potentially undermine efforts towards regional stability and conflict resolution. Moreover, France's strategic manoeuvring has drawn criticism from other global powers, particularly Russia, which views the South Caucasus as part of its sphere of influence.

On March 11, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova criticized France's increased involvement in the Caucasus, suggesting it serves as a form of compensation for perceived failures in Africa.

Speaking on the program "Sunday Evening with Vladimir Solovyov" on Russia 1 channel, Zakharova stated, "the growth of Paris' activity in the Caucasus is a kind of compensation in the public and political consciousness against the background of the failure of French policy in Africa."

Zakharova further elaborated on what she termed as France's "experiments" in the region, suggesting they include activities under the guise of peacekeeping efforts. The remarks from the Russian diplomat come in the wake of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's official visit to France in late February.

France's disruptive role in the South Caucasus

Amidst President Macron's attempts to position France as a major global player, the French Senate's recent resolution on January 17 has come under intense scrutiny, particularly regarding France's role in the South Caucasus. Recent developments have seen France's influence in the region diminish, with tensions escalating over the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The resolution passed by the French Senate has sparked controversy, as it calls for sanctions against Azerbaijan's actions to reclaim sovereignty over Karabakh. Critics argue that the resolution exhibits bias and undermines international principles, accusing France of favouring Armenian nationalism.

The resolution, championed by French policymakers, purportedly asserts Armenia's right to defend its "territorial integrity," even by means of force, while simultaneously condemning Azerbaijan for its attempts to reclaim control over its sovereign territory. Critics argue that this apparent double standard not only undermines the principles of international law but also exacerbates the longstanding conflict in the region.

Azerbaijan, which has consistently maintained its right to re-establish sovereignty over Karabakh, has decried the French Senate's resolution as unjust and biased. In a statement issued shortly after the resolution's passing, Azerbaijani officials denounced the French stance as hypocritical, accusing France of supporting Armenian aggression while disregarding Azerbaijan's legitimate territorial claims.

Once enjoying privileged status as a co-chair of the Minsk Group, tasked with mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, France's position has gradually diminished. This decline is attributed to President Macron's persistent attempts to assert French influence, which have failed to yield tangible results, leaving France marginalized as an external actor in the region.

Critics argue that France's approach in the South Caucasus has been primarily driven by a desire to maintain the status quo, favouring Armenia over Azerbaijan due to historical ties and a sizable Armenian diaspora within France. This approach, they contend, aimed to perpetuate Armenia's occupation of Azerbaijani territories, positioning Armenia as a potential satellite state to bolster France's global image.

However, recent events, including Azerbaijan's successful military campaign to reclaim its territories in Karabakh, have highlighted France's waning influence in the region.

Moreover, France's setbacks in the South Caucasus coincide with its struggles in other regions, notably in Africa's Sahel region, where French military interventions have faced challenges in containing insurgencies and stabilizing the region. These colossal defeats have further diminished France's credibility as a global player, casting doubts on President Macron's ability to assert French influence on the world stage.