International Criminal Court not to save Armenia from Russia's wrath Foreign political analysts’ views on Caliber.Az

Spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova has said that Moscow expects to receive appropriate bilateral assurances from its Armenian partners and Yerevan knows this well. Zakharova was commenting on Armenia’s accession to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC).

“Armenia’s accession to the Rome Statute does not have the best effect on bilateral relations, forcing Yerevan to make a choice between obligations dictated by the West under the ICC and political dialogue with Russia, interaction within the Eurasian integration,” the Russian Foreign Ministry stated.

Moscow expects clear guarantees from Yerevan regarding the elimination of any ambiguities in case of a hypothetical trip by Russian President Vladimir Putin to a country that agreed to join the ICC by remaining in an alliance with Russia.

Press Secretary for the Russian president Dmitry Peskov told reporters on February 12 that the new reality has a negative impact on bilateral relations, so the Russian side is determined to discuss this issue with the Armenian partners before President Putin’s possible visit to Armenia.

The day before, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in an interview with The Telegraph journalist Roland Oliphant, did not give a clear answer to the following question. If Russian President Vladimir Putin comes to Yerevan, will he be arrested?

Armenia officially joined the ICC, headquartered in The Hague, on February 1, 2024. The decision taken by the Armenian parliament in early October 2023 to ratify the Rome Statute caused more tension in relations between Yerevan and Moscow as the ICC issued an arrest warrant for the Russian leader in March 2023.

If Yerevan does not respond and remains silent on this topic, then what consequences could the country’s accession to the Rome Statute of the ICC have for the current Armenian government? What are the risks for Pashinyan and his team? May any foreign economic problems arise? May the problems with the country's energy supply arise? Will opposition forces become more active and begin to ruin the political situation in Armenia?

Foreign political analysts answered these questions for Caliber.Az.

Political analyst, director of the Caucasus Centre of Islamic Research, expert at the Financial University under the Russian government Shota Akhaidze thinks that the issue is indeed very relevant.

“This issue is acute in the Russia-Armenia relations because in case of President Putin’s visit to Armenia, a certain international legal contradiction may arise. Armenia has already acceded to the Rome Statute and is subject to the ICC rules. We must remember that 60 Armenian MPs voted for joining ICC. However, there are nuances. The ICC does not override a country's jurisdiction. That is, if any order of the ICC contradicts the internal laws of the country, then it is not necessary to comply with them. As for the Russian president, in this case, the decision will have to be made by the Armenian political leadership,” he noted.

“I don’t know what decision will be made, what guarantees can be discussed there. The Armenian government will make a decision. Now Armenia is trying to pursue a policy of integration into Western organisations and continues to be in the Eurasian space, in Eurasian associations [being in the common legal field of the Customs Union, EAEU, CSTO], and this is a very contradictory moment. Of course, the policy of Euro-Atlanticism and integration into Western organisations is absolutely contrary to the policy of Eurasianism. For example, Kazakhstan did not join the Rome Statute,” Akhaidze said.

Akhaidze said that if Western partners demand Pashinyan’s consent to arrest President Putin, I think that he will not dare to do this because he understands that his country is economically tied to Russia, and there is a Russian military base on its territory. There are many other reasons why Pashinyan will not do this. However, the fact that he put himself in such a situation and is pursuing an unbalanced policy is a big and acute question.

 “Of course, without Russia, Armenia will immediately have economic problems. It lacks energy resources. Russia uses dumping policy, and Armenia still has a lot of debt to it. All this must be taken into account. I think that Pashinyan will not risk by arresting President Putin upon an existing ICC warrant during his potential visit to Armenia. That is, I think he will provide the Russian president with the security guarantees. Although, of course, this will cause an international scandal, involving Pashinyan,” he added.

Kyrgyz political analyst, expert on regional security Mars Sariev has said that of course, ratification of the Rome Statute is very dangerous for Armenia and personally for Pashinyan from the point of view of Russian influence.

“Russia has a monopoly in Armenia. The energy sector is completely dependent on it. There are more Armenians in Russia than in Armenia itself. The documents of arriving travellers are checked by the representatives of the Russian Border Service at the Armenian Zvartnots International Airport. There is a Russian military base in Gyumri. Therefore, Armenia is very closely tied to Russia, and I think, it will wait,” the analyst said.

He noted that the West, in particular the European Union, expects that the two Christian countries of the South Caucasus will begin to pursue a pro-Western policy, and afterwards Europe will increase its influence in this region.

“Of course, the moderator of all these processes is France, behind which is the US. Therefore, I do not expect an intensification of the anti-Russian mood in Armenia. This will result in a powerful retaliatory blow. If numerous Armenians are deported from the Russian Federation to Armenia, this will be a disaster for Yerevan. So Armenia will wait,” Sariev stressed.

“Moreover, Europe intends to finance the Trans-Caspian corridor. The total amount is $300 billion. Europe is intensifying its activity in the Caucasus and Central Asia. That is, Pashinyan will play for time, waiting for logistics from China to Europe through our territory and the Caucasus to start working. Thus, the West is trying to tempt the Central Asian countries, break them away from Russia and China, and control the transport corridor and logistics. These are huge amounts. Therefore, I think that it is unbeneficial for Armenia to take an anti-Russian position, and this issue will remain open until the geopolitical situation changes in the vast space from the Caucasus to Central Asia,” the Kyrgyz political analyst added.