Expert: If Georgia opens second front, Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Iran to be drawn into conflict Caliber.Az from Tbilisi

Caliber.Az had an interview with an analyst, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Professor of the Rzeszow University of Technology in Poland Levan Chotorlishvili.

- What consequences may the Russian-Ukrainian war have for the global financial system as a whole, and in particular, for the financial sector of the South Caucasus and Georgia?

- First of all, this war caused an influx of immigrants, mainly representatives of the middle class, from Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus to Georgia.

This process is accompanied by an influx of capital. The citizens of the Russian Federation and Belarus, who are opposed to their governments, are trying to transfer their business to Georgia. The matter rests in medium and small businesses, for example, IT.

On the other hand, it is clear that in the long run, the consequences of the war will be very negative. The Georgian economy is rather dependent on the economies of Russia and Türkiye, financial support from the EU and the US, agricultural exports, and tourism. If we analyze each of these factors, it will become clear that the situation has been aggravated.

Sanctions and the economic consequences of the war affect both sides of the front. The Western economy is failing, while the Russian economy will sooner or later fully experience the impact of sanctions. This will affect both the export of agricultural products and the solvency of Russian-speaking tourists mainly from the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Belarus in Georgia. The EU and the US will have fewer funds and opportunities to support the Georgian economy due to the difficult situation, not to mention the political instability associated with the war. Today it is difficult to say how and when this war will end, but it is clear that there will be a bitter pill to swallow and the consequences will be felt for many years.

- Georgia strives to join the EU. What privileges will the country's economy obtain?

- Georgia will get the same privileges as such Eastern European countries as Romania and Bulgaria, which had difficult economic problems before joining the EU. They are still the poorest countries in the EU, but everything is relative.

Today's indicators of Romania and Bulgaria are not comparable with those that were before joining the EU. In general, Georgia's desire to join the EU is of a civilizational and historical nature. Besides the economic factors, there are other factors, such as the rule of law, a democratic political system, human rights, and freedom of speech.

After the collapse of ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili's regime, Georgia has achieved certain progress in all these indicators, which has always been outlined in the ratings of European organisations. Of course, in reality, the situation is not rather smooth.

Georgia tends to idealize the image of Europe and see it as it was in the 1960-1980s. However, the Old World has not been like this for a long time and is gradually losing its prosperity and those features that were the subject of its attractiveness. As a person who has mainly lived in Germany, I can confirm this.

Georgia is invited to a feast that is about to end. The inertia of the leadership of European civilization will not last for a long time. There are many reasons, and they are historical and irreversible. However, Georgia's EU aspirations are justified in the short term.

- The US has accused a number of countries, including Georgia, of circumventing sanctions against Russia. Do you share Washington’s concern?

- The US and EU governments have repeatedly stated at the official level that Georgia has not circumvented the sanctions.

Georgia has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and voted in favor of the corresponding resolutions since the beginning of the war, on all international platforms in which it participates, starting with the UN. Georgian volunteers are fighting as part of the Ukrainian armed forces. The Georgian government should, first of all, think about the security of its country, which implies caution and thoughtfulness in actions.

Nevertheless, certain circles in the US and the EU, mainly in the Baltic countries, consider Georgia’s support insufficient. They want to open the second front in the Caucasus and directly involve Georgia in the war.
They openly assert that the time has come for the Georgian government to start military operations in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Such high-profile statements are heard all the time.

They are trying to use the accusation of circumventing the sanctions as a tool of political pressure. However, they do not try to provide facts. Meanwhile, the burden of proof always lies with the claimant. The same circles do not give up their attempts to undermine Georgia from within. It is necessary to understand that if Georgia is involved in the war and the second front is opened, Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and Iran will inevitably be drawn into the conflict. Then the second front will become the first one, which, in fact, some foreign leaders hope for.

Georgia’s history has more than 25 centuries. Georgians have seen a lot and have great political experience. Consequently, they are not eager to provide the territory of their country for waging a proxy war with Russia.

- Georgia is a country with rapidly developing tourism. However, those who have recently come there have expressed dissatisfaction with a noticeable increase in prices, especially in restaurants - by 20-30 per cent. What is the reason for such an increase? How will it affect the tourist flow?

- Georgian students are also expressing their dissatisfaction because they are unable to pay for housing because of the increase in prices. The reason is the increased demand due to the influx of immigrants from Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. However, I think it is temporary.

- How does the influx of citizens from the Russian Federation and Ukraine into Georgia after the start of the war affect the country’s microeconomic indicators?

- So far, the impact is positive. Temporary migrants spend their savings. Most of them are trying to build a business.

Very rich people or, on the contrary, poor people who have lost everything and hope for governmental assistance have mainly left Russia for Europe and Israel. The representatives of the middle class, who rely only on themselves, mainly visit Georgia. Everyone understands that Georgia is unable to provide the same conditions as the EU countries.

- How did the Russian-Ukrainian war affect money transfers to Georgia?

- Georgians living and working in Russia financially support their relatives in the homeland. I think that after the economic situation deteriorated in the Russian Federation, this support decreased. I just guess. I can't say exactly.

- How do you assess Georgia’s cooperation with Azerbaijan and Türkiye?

- This cooperation is of a strategic nature and is based on mutually beneficial conditions. Georgia is primarily interesting for partners because of its position and the possibility of transporting goods in different directions.

Before the war, the transport infrastructure of Russia and the Baltic countries played an important role in the transportation of goods from Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and China. I think that the transport blockade of Russia will last for a long time.

However, this creates preconditions for the development of Georgian ports and the attraction of investments from China and the EU. For this purpose, first of all, it is necessary to maintain peace in the region and avoid the involvement of the regional countries in the Russian-Ukrainian war.