Analysts say Türkiye awaits from Armenia concrete steps for normalization of ties Peace with Azerbaijan is first

Türkiye is a regional player, and it is natural to expect that it should take a balanced stance on various developments in the region, said Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in a recent interview with the Greek publication Kathimerini.

“No less attention is paid to the official rhetoric of Türkiye, which can both stimulate and jeopardize several processes. Armenia, on the other hand, expects that Türkiye’s rhetoric will not be aimed at increasing regional tensions, but will help promote dialogue and cooperation in the region. As you know, Armenia and Türkiye have begun the process of normalizing relations, which is aimed at the complete normalization of relations, the establishment of diplomatic relations between the countries, and the complete opening of the interstate border. As part of this process, an agreement was reached to open the Armenia-Türkiye land border to third-country citizens and persons holding diplomatic passports. We truly believe that the implementation of this agreement will also have a positive impact on regional dynamics,” Pashinyan emphasized.

He said the developments between Greece and Türkiye prove once again that it is possible to overcome differences and form a mutually beneficial cooperation agenda between the neighbours.

And here, of course, the question arises: what really needs to happen for the process of normalisation of relations between Armenia and Türkiye to become dynamic? After all, no special activity has been seen so far. What conditions should Armenia fulfil for this? How does Türkiye see it?

Foreign experts shared their views on this issue with Caliber.Az.

Turkish political scientist, leading specialist of the Ankara-Moscow expert-analytical network Engin Ozer said that from Ankara's point of view, Armenia should first of all fulfil its obligations arising from the Tripartite Statement of November 10, 2020.

"That is, it should have unblocked all communications between Nakhchivan [Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan] and the main part of Azerbaijan long ago. First of all, I am referring here to the Zangezur corridor. Türkiye expects exactly that. Besides, there are still problems with the beginning of the process of delimitation and demarcation of the borders between Azerbaijan and Armenia. And there is also the problem of eight Azerbaijani villages - border and enclave villages, which are still controlled by Yerevan. Of course, they must return under the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan," the expert said.

If all these processes are launched, Türkiye will immediately show readiness for the full restoration of diplomatic relations with Armenia, he believes.

"Thus, everything hinges on Armenia starting to settle all the problematic issues with Azerbaijan. There is a feeling that Yerevan is already starting to move in this direction. As soon as all these issues are resolved, Türkiye will open its borders with Armenia. That is, the action plan for the resumption of normal relations between our countries is known," Ozer said.

Igor Semivolos, Executive Director of the Centre for Middle East Studies (Kyiv), notes that the full restoration of diplomatic relations between Türkiye and Armenia has a history.

"There was football diplomacy, visits of Armenian leaders to Türkiye, meetings between Pashinyan and Erdogan. There have been more such contacts since the end of the Second Karabakh War, and they testify to the willingness of both sides to resolve differences and take a decisive step forward. This does not mean that the sides will necessarily agree on all positions of bilateral relations. It is quite possible that the interpretation of sensitive historical events will continue to remain unresolved, but this will certainly not be a problem at this stage," says the Centre's Director.

However, a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is needed to finalise this process, he added.

“It is obvious that Ankara, having strategic agreements with Baku, will not be the first in this process. I admit that the preparation of such documents does not stand still, and as soon as a peace agreement with Azerbaijan is signed, an agreement between Türkiye and Armenia will be signed immediately, without wasting time. At least I don’t see any other obstacles,” Semivolos said.

Candidate of Historical Sciences, expert on the Middle East, Associate Professor of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at Moscow State Linguistic University Iqbal Durre noted in turn that the answer here is simple, and Turkish officials have repeatedly said this - Ankara is only waiting for a solution to the still existing and well-known problems between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the conclusion of a peace treaty between them.